Г¶sterr Romme

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Jackie meets with his friend Vinnie, who reveals his fate and finds a suitable place for him to escape. The only option Jackie has is to agree.

Kassem, Victor, and Jackie all assume fake identities and end up in Porvenir, a remote village in Latin America.

Its conditions provide a stark contrast to their previous lives. The village economy is heavily reliant on an American oil company. Kassem befriends a man called 'Marquez' John , presumably a Nazi war veteran.

They all live in extreme poverty and earn meager salaries. All want out, but their savings are inadequate for emigration.

After some time, Nilo arrives in the village, raising suspicions. In the meantime, an oil well explodes, and the only way to extinguish the fire is to use dynamite.

Since the only available dynamite has been improperly stored in a remote depot, the nitroglycerin contained inside has become highly unstable; the faintest vibration could cause an explosion.

The company seeks four drivers to man two vehicles. Kassem, Victor, Jackie and 'Marquez' are offered the job, but they have to assemble the trucks using scrap parts.

Shortly before their departure, Nilo kills and replaces 'Marquez', which angers Kassem. The four drivers embark upon a perilous journey of over miles, facing many hazards and internal conflicts.

Despite their differences, they are forced to co-operate. They traverse a rotten bridge during a violent thunderstorm, Nilo and Jackie nearly losing their truck in the process.

The team is forced to use one of the boxes of dynamite to destroy a massive fallen tree blocking their path. When Nilo and Jackie stop at the scene of the destruction, bandits surround them in an attempted robbery.

They kill the bandits but Nilo is mortally wounded, soon dying from his injuries. Now alone, Jackie struggles to stay sane, overwhelmed by hallucinations and flashbacks.

When his truck's engine dies just two miles short of the destination, he is forced to carry the remaining nitroglycerin on foot. At the bar back in Porvenir, Jackie is given legal citizenship and payment for the job by the oil company, as well as an offer of another job.

Before he leaves, he asks a scrub woman for a dance. As the two dance, Carlo Ricci's henchmen, along with Jackie's old friend Vinnie, emerge from a taxi outside.

They walk into the bar and the screen cuts to the end credits. The film's title refers to one of the trucks, which has the name "Sorcerer" painted across the hood the other is named "Lazaro" ; there is no supernatural or magical character or event.

As director William Friedkin went location scouting in Ecuador and researched the peculiar ornaments on cargo trucks he had seen there, he noticed there were names painted on them, which ranged from relatives to mythological references.

Then after some time struggling to think on another moniker, a listen to the Miles Davis album Sorcerer served as an inspiration to name the other truck, though the word was painted in French: "Sorcier".

Friedkin then decided to change his working title Ballbreaker for Sorcerer , which he described as "an intentional but ill-advised reference to The Exorcist ".

The Sorcerer is an evil wizard and in this case the evil wizard is fate. The fact that somebody can walk out of their front door and a hurricane can take them away, an earthquake or something falling through the roof.

Friedkin elaborated on this theme in an interview with Thomas D. I wasn't prepared for my success or failure. I felt That's one of the themes of Sorcerer.

No matter how much you struggle, you get blown up. In the director's opinion, the premise of The Wages of Fear both the novel and the first film adaptation seemed to him a metaphor for "the world [being] full of strangers who hated one another, but if they didn't cooperate, if they didn't work together in some way, they would blow up.

Additionally, their intention was to "write a real movie about what we thought was the reality of Latin America and the presence of foreigners there today".

During a scene in Paris involving a conversation between Victor and his wife, she reads him a memoir of a retired French Foreign Legion officer who has to make a decision whether to kill a civilian or not.

The officer eventually does so, which to Victor means that he was "just another soldier". His wife, however, counters with an argument that "no one is just anything".

According to Friedkin, this phrase stands for "the theme of the film". Friedkin originally conceived Sorcerer as a "little 2.

However, Steven Spielberg at that point had already made Close Encounters of the Third Kind , which presumably nullified the project.

Friedkin's intention was not to create a remake, but to direct a film using only the same basic outline with completely original protagonists.

He also wanted the film to be "grittier than Clouzot's [version], with the 'documentary feel' for which [he] had become known.

He felt that American audiences had very limited exposure to Clouzot's film [39] and the English-speaking world in general was not very familiar with it.

Friedkin appointed Walon Green as the film's screenwriter. The director got to know Green in the s, and was since highly impressed with his work in Sam Peckinpah 's western The Wild Bunch.

Friedkin described Green as a multilingual person, fluently speaking French, Spanish, Italian, and German, as well as having "an encyclopedic knowledge of classical music and literature".

Since the dynamics of output in the N. With account of conjuncture factors revealed by theoretical analysis, we create the macroeconometric model, which gives estimates of price indicators and production indices in the main branches of the real sector.

The novelty of the proposed approach to applied macroeconomic modeling of the Russian economy, thus, consists in taking into account the inner structure of the Russian economy, on the one hand, and the specific methodology of modeling for description of nonstationary transitional dynamics of the real data, on the other.

In this manner, we arrive at the stage of econometric modeling, where the method of cointegration analysis of Engle-Granger is used.

Keywords: economy of Russia; structural modeling; disaggregated macromodel, applied econometric analysis. Macroeconomic Modeling of the Russian Economy.

Applied Econometrics, 47, Applied Statistics. Study of Relationships. Colander D. Toward an Empirically Based Macroeconomics. American Economic Review.

Papers and Proceedings, 98 2 , Testimony Presented to U. Serial No. Cooley T. Calibrated Models. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 13 3 , Davidson R.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press. Edge R. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall Engle R.

Econometrica, 55, Estimating How the Macroeconomy Works. The Open Access Journal, , Fernandez-Villaverde J. Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, 1, Granger C.

Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 35, Heim J. London: Palgrave-MacMillan. Klein L. Principles of macroeconometric modeling.

Advanced textbooks in economics, The Wharton Econometric Forecasting Model. Wharton School of Finance and Commerce.

Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania. Mankiw N. The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 20 4 , Paccagnini A.

European University. Sims C. Money, Income, and Causality. The American Economic Review, 62 4 , Macroeconomics and Reality.

Welfe W. Macroeconometric models. Advanced studies in theoretical and applied econometrics, Svetlov K. Herding behaviour on stock market: analysis and forecasting Economics and mathematical methods , , 55 2 , This study was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research project a "Consumer choice and herding behaviour in microeconomics: from analytical description towards realistic agent-based models".

The author is grateful to the project manager - dr. Kovalevsky for helpful comments. We study the Alfarano model, which describes the dynamics of the stock price under the influence of the herding behavior of market participants.

Within the framework of this model, two types of economic agents are distinguished: investors and noise traders. It is assumed that among traders there are optimistic traders expecting price value to rise and pessimistic traders expecting it to decline.

The stochastic nature of the price in this model is formed by the changes of noise traders expectations. Solow R. July Welfe W. Advanced studies in theoretical and applied econometrics.

Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time. Berlin: Springer Berlin Heidelberg. New York: Dover Publications Inc. Alfarano S. Bhattacharya R.

Stochastic Processes with Applications. Karlin S. A Second Course in Stochastic Processes. New York: Academic Press.

Kirman A. Kovalevsky D. Inflation and the Theory of Money. New York: Routledge, Berger J. Debreu G. DeGraba P.

Gisser M. Lang B. Leibenstein H. Mantel R. Sernovitz A. Austin: Greenleaf Book Group Press, Van Herper E.

Aloui Ch. Armstrong M. Belleflamme P. Industrial Organization. Markets and Strategies. Bhargava H. Gabszewicz J.

Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Platform Competition and Vertical Differentiation. Universit Catholique de Louvain. Center for Operations Research and Econometrics.

Hagiu A. Hagui A. Expectations and Two-sided Platform Profits. Harvard Business School. Working Paper No. Information and Two-sided Platform Profits.

Nault B. Haskayne School of Business. Working Paper. Rochet J. Roson R. Rysman M. Harvard Business School Press. Shivendu S. Global Top Companies by market capitalization E-mail: Ruslan.

Bessler D. Billio M. Brooks C. Introductory Econometrics for Finance. Eun C. F, Granger C. Forbes K. Gobka B. Gjerde O. Co-Integrated Variables and Error-Correcting models.

Discussion Paper Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables. Grigoryev R. PhD thesis, University of Portsmouth. Grigoryeva L.

Econometrics and Statistics. Hoover K. Treatise of Human Nature. Oxford: Clarendon Press. Johansen S. Kasa K. Koch P. Korhonen I. Malliaris A.

Peresetsky A. A, Yakubov R. Peir A. Transmission of Information between Stock Markets. Institut Valenci d'Investigacions Econmiques. Resnick B.

Kosorukov O. Barro R. Economic Growth. Hiks J. Value and Capital. London: Oxford University Press. Hillman A. League Of Legends Kleidung League of Legends Fanartikel Tags: league of legends, league, lol, fizz, fish, shark, cool, black and white.

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Google AdSense:. However, as evidenced by the analysis, forecasting procedure of these activities, in contrast to the socio-economic and scientific-technological development, is not legally regulated.

Ways to eliminate this gap is the subject of the study. The work outlines the subject and steps in the procedure of long-term forecasting in the scientific and technical spheres.

The analysis of normative and legal basis of the formation of aggregated long-term forecast models for fundamental and exploratory research defined terms and stages of such rules' development for aggregate models, formulated the methodological features and requirements of these regulations, as well as the proposals for the development of its expertise tools and information support.

The study laid the basis for preparing and taking the government decision on regulation of predicting fundamental and exploratory research providing RAS with the responsible status on predicting fundamental and pilot-studies.

It is emphasized that the procedure and the development model specified matches the national forecasting model, certain decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation on the procedure of forecasting the socio-economic, scientific and technological development.

At the same time, the model considers the differences in forecasting problems of development of fundamental and applied scientific types of research.

Keywords: fundamental and pilot-study, socio-economic and scientific-technological development, procedure and model of long-term forecasting, strategic planning, legislation, methodological and information provision, institute and rules of regulations.

Long-Term Science and Technology. Forsyth, 3, in Russian. Biktimirov M. Experience in Canada, the Netherlands, Germany.

Modeling and Analysis of Information Systems, 22, 1, in Russian. Dushkin R. Why hybrid AI Systems of the Future. Economic Strategy, 6 , in Russian.

Ivanov V. Ivanova N. Industry Innovation Policy Tools. Knyazev Y. The Society and Economy, 3, 16 in Russian. Kudrin A. Strategic lessons.

Litvak B. Expert Assessments and Decisions. Moscow: Patent in Russian. Makosko A. Innovation, 9 , in Russian. Marcus G. Deep Learning: A Critical Appraisal.

Cornell University Library. New York University. Mindeli L. The Society and Economy, 9, in Russian. The society and economy, 10, in Russian.

Microeconomics, 5, in Russian. Novikov, D. Active Forecast. Ostapyuk S. In: Bestuzhev-Lada I. Pletnyov K. Russell S.

Artificial Intelligence. A Modern Approach. Moscow: Williams in Russian. Science and Innovation Policy: Russia and the World, Moscow: Nauka in Russian.

Sidelnikov U. Technology Expert scenario forecasting. Moscow: MAI in Russian. Sokolov A. Forsyth: A Look into the Future. Forsyth, 1, 1, in Russian.

Zubova L. Newsletter, 6, in Russian. Moscow: ZISN. This research is focused on the approbation of Seasonal Component AutoRegressive with exogenous factors SCARX forecasting models class on two price area of the Russian electricity market.

The SCARX model consists of extrapolation of long-term trend-seasonal component and independent forecasting of short-term seasonal-stochastic component of electricity price.

The performance evaluation was carried out using weighted weekly and daily mean absolute errors, as well as the formal statistical procedure of the prediction ability comparison - Diebold-Mariano test DM-test.

The historical data of price and planed consumption in the Europe-Ural and Siberia price areas of the Russian electricity exchange were used for the numerical experiment, while testing period is week or days long.

The same results are proved by the formal DM-test carried for each hour in trading day. In order to overcome the problem of a priori selection of smoothing parameters, it is proposed to use various methods of forecast combinations.

Keywords: electricity price forecasting, seasonal component autoregressive, wavelet-smoothng, Hodrick-Prescott filter, Diebold-Mariano test. Energy Economics, 56, Carmon R.

New York: Springer. Casazza J. Hoboken: Wiley. Chuchueva I. Postgraduate thesis. Conejo A. International Journal of Forecasting, 21, 3, De Jong C.

Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 10, 3, Diebold F. Comparing Predictive Accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, Eydeland A.

Energy and Power Risk Management. New Jersey: Wiley. Fedorova E. Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Power Engineering, 3, in Russian. Haldrup N. Energy Economics, 32, Hodrick R. Postwar U. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation.

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29, 1, Hyndman R. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. Janczura J. Energy Economics, 38, Lisi F. Maciejowska K.

International Journal of Forecasting, 32, 3, Misiorek A. Non-Linear Time Series Models. Nogales F. Nowotarski J. Energy Economics, 46, Energy Economics, 39, Energy Economics, 57, Val' P.

Weron R. International Journal of Forecasting, 30, Energy Economics, 48, Danilin V. In developing a business plan, take part in almost all company departments, such as purchasing department, production department or the planning and Economic Department, Finance Department, Sales Department and others.

Each unit develops its own section of the plan, on the basis of their specific objectives, which did not always coincide with the objectives of the company as a whole.

This raises the problem of harmonizing these decisions with the company's goals. There are different approaches to solving the problem of harmonization.

For example, vertical alignment, when units are in detail its decisions in aggregated form and pass them in the direction where on that basis accepted the final version of the plan of the company and the results are on the level of units for rework.

This article focuses on the development of a system of models horizontal harmonization of planning decisions between units. To solve this problem, the methodology of the sequence of decision-making entities in the form of an iterative procedure based on system models.

The system consists of a model production plan in view of the expansion of capacities, model financial plan plan for profits and losses, planned balance and cash flow plan , the company's marketing plan model and model supply plan given the inverse relationships between models.

The example shows that after a number of iterations units receive a consistent routine decision corresponding to the objectives of the company as a whole.

Keywords: functional units, production and financial divisions, the first division of supply and sales, negotiate solutions, system models, stages iteration the formulation of the plan.

Consistent Management of Active Production Systems. Bagrinovskiy K. Basis of the Harmonization of Planning Decisions. Brealey R.

Principles of Corporate Finance. Brigham E. Financial Management. Saint Petersburg: Economic School in Russian. Cheng F. Corporate Finance: Theory, Methods and Practice.

Crass M. Mathematics and Its Applications in Matematicheskom Education. Moscow: Business in Russian.

Economics and mathematical methods, 51, 4, in Russian. Horne J. Fundamentals of Financial Management.

Karlberg K. Business Analysis Using Microsoft Excel. Mironoseckij N. Novosibirsk: Nauka in Russian. Pleshchynski A. Portugal V. Planning Models.

Ross C. Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. Moscow: Laboratory of Basic Knowledge in Russian. Shapiro J. Robert Auer was not a follower of trends or fashions, consistently following a single artistic concept during his entire career.

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